Major signal release! China will thoroughly adjust its economic layout! (Depth)

Recently, during a meeting of the State Council Financial Commission chaired by Liu He to study the current situation, a word was mentioned:

The disorderly tightening of the capital market

The significance behind it is significant!

The meeting also mentioned:

Regarding real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and propose effective risk prevention and resolution response plans, and propose supporting measures for transitioning to new development models.

Recently, Mayor Huang, who is most knowledgeable about the Chinese real estate market, emphasized:

Real estate remains a pillar industry that must be stabilized, and the national team can enter through mergers and acquisitions

The government can repurchase some of the inventory houses, buy back high-end ones to make talent housing, and buy back affordable housing for new citizens in the middle and low-end users

This means that the turning point of the Chinese economy has arrived!

01

The first half of the Chinese economy has ended, and the second half of the economy is opening up!

Just like playing a basketball game, the playing style in the second half must be different from that in the first half. No matter which side you are on, you must adjust your playing style to adapt to the new pace of the game.

The world is undergoing tremendous changes, and every major event can only accelerate the arrival of change. This epidemic has accelerated elimination and also accelerated innovation.

What changes will occur in the logic of making money from the first half to the second half?

In short, in the first half, our income came from "capital" growth; In the second half, our revenue came from "operational" growth.

Let's first clarify what capital is? For example, land, houses, stocks, various advantageous resources (minerals, factories, etc.), which are things that can benefit from them, often have great significance in the early stages of a country's development because they can activate the capital of the entire society and leverage it to drive round after round of economic development.

Any country, enterprise, or individual that wants to develop rapidly must solve the problem of primitive capital accumulation and go through a process of primitive capital accumulation. This process is like 'running a racecourse'. Once productivity is liberated, increase horsepower and charge straight forward. Whoever has more horsepower will grab more territory, which belongs to the stage of barbaric growth. The era of "racing and enclosure" mainly has two major dividends:

The first major dividend: the "headcount dividend", targeting the manufacturing and real estate industries.

The second big dividend: "traffic dividend", targeted at the Internet industry.

These two major dividends have enabled China to complete three major infrastructure tasks:

The first is physical infrastructure, mainly relying on real estate;

The second is the infrastructure of the network, mainly relying on the Internet;

The third is the richness of products, mainly relying on the manufacturing industry.

The completion of the three major infrastructure tasks has enabled China to complete the primitive accumulation of capital. In the first half of the Chinese economy, from 1979 to 2019, the core problem we solved was the process of primitive accumulation of capital.

It is worth mentioning that, looking at the world, only China's primitive accumulation process was completed without external aggression and colonial plunder, while developed capitalist countries such as Britain, the United States, and Japan all relied on external colonial plunder to complete and accelerate this process.

For example, why were there World War I and World War II? It is because capitalist countries have begun to divide the spoils unevenly, and emerging capitalist countries (such as the United States/Germany) need to redivide the world.

So why can China complete this process in just 40 years? This is due to the globalization of modern trade, especially after our accession to the WTO, our domestic products have rapidly penetrated into various parts of the world, which is one of the important reasons for us to complete our primitive accumulation.

But now that we have completed the primitive accumulation process of capital, we cannot remain in this state indefinitely. What should China do next?

As we mentioned at the beginning, the growth of the Chinese economy is shifting from being driven by "capital" to being driven by "operations".

So what is operation? It is through management, optimization, and allocation that these resources can be revitalized to maximize their social value.

For example, there is no shortage of houses now, what is lacking is how to make use of idle houses; There is no shortage of products now, what is lacking is channels for delivering suitable products to the right people.

That is to say, the era of horse racing and enclosure is over, and now we must manage your one acre and three fen land well. The era of savage growth has passed, and the future is the era of intensive cultivation; The era of gold mining has passed, and the future is the era of alchemy.

Previously, we relied on the growth of capital to make money, such as how many times the housing price increased or how much the stock appreciated. However, the era of rapid capital growth has passed now. If we still want to follow the previous logic of sitting in a pit and waiting for appreciation, it is like waiting for a rabbit by the tree.

According to this logic, how to measure the future prospects of a city, enterprise, or individual? It depends on how the operating income of this entity is:

For example, many cities still have high GDP but low public revenue, which indicates that the city is heading towards decline;

For example, many listed companies still have a high market value, but their profits are decreasing and even starting to lose money, indicating that the company is also on a downward trend;

For example, many people in first tier cities own tens of millions of properties, but their annual income is less than 200000 yuan, which is not enough to sustain the operation of their families, indicating that this person is also struggling to make ends meet.

Although a lean camel is bigger than a horse, once the trend occurs, it is difficult to reverse and may even accelerate... These entities will eventually encounter a crisis and start selling their capital (property) to survive until they disappear.

Of course, in this process, although some people and companies have low initial accumulation, their operating income is very high when light vehicles are deployed.

In the future, a large number of individuals and enterprises that rely on operations to make money will emerge. They will not rely on capital to reap the benefits, but on new operations, models, and channels to make money. They are the backbone of China's economy in the second half.

Where there is great destruction, there is great standing. When a group of people fall, there will inevitably be a group of people standing up.

02

The first and second halves of the Chinese economy each have their own tasks:

In the first half, driven by capital, we need to first establish a framework for society through innovation in "mode+technique".

In the second half, driven by operations, we need to fill in the "product+content" to make society flesh and blood.

Capital first, then operation, these are often the two stages of personal and business development, which is also a process of "hard first, soft later":

For example, in recent years, we have been vigorously building bridges, roads, and houses, which is a kind of hard infrastructure construction aimed at creating a good social framework. Only when a society's infrastructure is perfected to a certain extent, can people better engage in scientific research and produce products.

For example, we have created many Internet platforms in the past few years, such as e-commerce, social networking, transportation, catering, and so on. These platforms are also built to build a framework for the society. These platforms greatly improve the operation efficiency of the society and bring many people opportunities for entrepreneurship and employment.

When we improve the basic framework of society to a certain stage through the power of capital, our next focus should be on operational content.

Therefore, in the first half of China's economy, two major tasks have been accomplished through the accumulation of capital: building infrastructure and houses with reinforced concrete, and launching various Internet platforms to improve social operation efficiency.

In the era of building frameworks, development is relatively extensive and the order is not perfect enough, so many people are studying patterns and techniques, making it easier for speculators to make money. This is a reality.

So those who operate these two types of capital make the most money, the first being those who work in real estate, and the second being those who successfully build various platforms.

In the second half, with the improvement of the business framework, only by operating products and content well can there be a way out!

This is actually a necessity: in an era of highly symmetrical information, or rather, in an era of increasingly intense competition, all models and techniques will become without barriers, and capital will have nowhere to settle.

In the first half of the economy, a person's success has little to do with their personal abilities and contributions. As long as you are brave, know how to play tricks, and do whatever it takes, you can succeed.

But the second half was different. The Internet was more and more developed, information was more and more symmetrical, intermediate links were less and less, opportunities were more and more equal, channels were more and more open, and resources were more and more transparent. In an era of highly symmetrical information and value, every opportunity was only reserved for those who could best match it. The best technology (tool) will definitely be mastered by the people who are best at using it; The most valuable ideas are also obtained by those who have the most spirit of contribution.

So, this is also an era of excessive routines, where everyone is familiar with and masters various routines. When everyone is using routines, those who are attentive, sincere, and valuable become the most popular people.

From now on, opportunities will become increasingly fair, and the legal system and regulations will become more perfect. Society has bid farewell to the period of barbaric growth and begun to develop in depth/refinement. If a person wants to succeed, they must rely on the value they can create. We are entering an era where "value" determines everything.

In an era of highly symmetrical values, each person can only receive what matches them, and once they have more than their abilities/values, trouble arises.

Therefore, in the future, we must focus our energy on operating products, content, or services, rather than relying on various shortcuts or speculation, and no longer relying on the power of capital.

A phrase I often say is: China's truly good era has just begun, because the upgrade from "capital" to "operation" is not only about changing the logic of society, but also about transforming the mainstream values of society.

An era where everyone is focusing on developing products and content, and emphasizing operations, is the healthy era and the best era.

Looking at life from a different perspective, in the first half of the Chinese economy, people relied on speculation to make money, while in the second half of the Chinese economy, people relied on hard work to make money.

It can also be understood as follows: the most typical feature of the second half of the Chinese economy is that only diligent and good people can make money.

This sentence is very simple but straightforward.

03

Throughout human society, it can be found that human development is inseparable from a law, which is:

Short term competition for opportunities, mid-term competition for abilities, and long-term competition for character.

At the beginning, human success depends on opportunities, but at a certain stage, it depends on abilities. If a person wants to remain invincible in the long run, they must have excellent character, otherwise they will definitely fall.

You can also understand it this way: your background determines how high your starting point is; Ability determines how quickly you develop; Character determines how far you can ultimately go.

The same logic applies to the development of enterprises:

Short term marketing, mid-term marketing model, and long-term product marketing.

The success of a business often requires leveraging opportunities and doing a good job in marketing at the beginning. But at a certain stage, we have to rely on patterns, which must be the most advanced and in line with the trend of the times.

However, in order for a company to achieve long-term development, it must be able to provide excellent products or services, otherwise it will definitely not be able to continue playing.

There have been many such cases around us, such as companies like Huang Taiji and LeTV, which used to have unlimited glory. They either relied on popularity or marketing, but now everyone has seen their current situation.

The development of cities also depends on a law, which is:

Short term policy competition, mid-term population competition, and long-term service competition.

The success of a city initially requires attention to policy support, and later the influx of population is key. Whether it can attract creative young people is the core.

But the true core competitiveness of a city lies in its public service capabilities, such as efficiency, healthcare, education, transportation, welfare, and so on, which determine the long-term development of the city.

From the above discussion, we can summarize two social laws:

1: All human competition ultimately boils down to a competition between "character" and "product".

2: All victories of humanity are victories of 'values'!

04

In the first half of the Chinese economy, many people's wealth seemed to be based on their abilities, but in fact, it was more of a product of speculation.

It's ridiculous that these people always think that once they succeed, they have achieved great success and can rest assured. They completely forget the rule that 'hard work leads to wealth and good fortune, and taking shortcuts will bring disaster'. So, many people returning to poverty may seem unlucky on the surface, but behind it lies karmic retribution and the law.

Someone will definitely say: No, many people around me with good character and values have been excluded by those who follow crooked paths.

Indeed, the extensive development model of the past has inevitably led to a crude society. In this social structure, everyone pursues short-term benefits and follows the concept of taking a quick profit. People need to become crude in order to survive and live better. Many people become shameless, while those who remain untainted from the mud are instead excluded.

What I want to say is: the progress of human civilization, the development of countries, enterprises, and individuals has always been tortuous, and even partial regression always occurs. It is abnormal not to take many detours. But the overall direction never goes wrong.

This world seems unfair, some people soar to the sky when they gain power, while others shine brightly but are buried without a trace. But if we extend the time, stand higher and farther away, and look at this society, we will find that it is really fair.

Because with the transformation of the economy, there will inevitably be a phenomenon of wealth restructuring. The logic of wealth restructuring is that wealth is always left to those who deserve it. The most fair aspect of Chinese society is that once a person's intelligence and wealth do not match, there are 100 ways to harvest them.

For example, those who take over Ponzi schemes often have intelligence at the bottom of society because their intelligence is not enough to control the wealth they possess or inherit. Therefore, high interest loan sharks and pyramid schemes should be allowed to harvest their wealth and increase the "liquidity" of social wealth.

The game of drumming and passing flowers is passed down from high intelligence to low intelligence, and it is inevitable that it will reach you unless you can find someone with a lower intelligence than you.

In the Internet era, information has become more and more transparent. In this era, people constantly identify all kinds of fools, put them at the bottom of the society, and enslave them.

At the same time, this era is constantly discovering smart people, lifting them up, allowing them to control wealth, and then managing and leading society.

Therefore, the money earned by a person through luck is often lost due to their strength.

The world may seem unpredictable and the times are changing rapidly, but in the depths of the universe, there is an invisible force that controls the operation of society!

This is called 'Heavenly Way'.